Startup Whisperer 2011 Predictions

I think that I did OK on my predictions for 2010.  Here is my take on 2011.

Prediction:  The year of the tablet. We were honored to be one of the first developers to support the Ipad with our game, Marble Mixer.  Some people thought we were crazy.  2011 is the year where the tablet is going to explode.  Tablet sales will exceed 50 million this year.

Prediction:  One of my metrics for a trend is when my 7-year old son can figure out how to setup his iTouch as a videophone over WiFi on his own.  Videophones have been around for awhile but they are going to be everywhere from the simplicity of Apple's Facetime to the new slew of tablets like the iPad 2.

Prediction:  The personal cloud is going to take off.  Certainly, we're all biased at RealNetworks.  We just won the best software as a service award at CES for our new product called, Unifi.  Consumers are going to head to personal cloud services in droves. Consumers will love the fact that they are not tied to specific platforms.  Look for the big players like Google and Apple joining the party.

Prediction: Amazon is by all accounts a top ad network.  I have blogged about this in the past.  My guesstimate is that an Amazon affiliate network has 2 million affiliates generating on average 5,000 impressions per month per publisher, or 120 billion impressions per year.  Amazon starts to take on huge players with its deep knowledge of consumer behavior and its already large base of publishing relationsihps.  Get ready for Amazon "Adwords."

Prediction:  Big tech IPOs come back - we'll see IPOs coming back topped off with not one but two big ones:  Facebook and Groupon.  Groupon said no to Googl'es $6 billion offer to be acquired.  Groupon wants to make its mark as a true long-standing Internet brand.  Facebook is primed to go and they will.

Prediction:  Google will buy Twitter - Google needs a big win in social media.  This is a no-brainer given Google's search horsepower.  They are going to pay crazy multiples which they are used to paying.

Prediction:  Seattle startup acquisitions - I have been 1 for 4 for the last couple of years.  This year I predict that BuddyTV will be acquired.

Comments

[James Cham]

What a great blog! I've been surprised by how little startup activity there is around tablets. I think tablet applications can be fundamentally different than other types of software because they are inherently viewable by others and social.

[Ohana Media]

The google - twitter thing is interesting.