Startup Whisperer

2012 Gaming Predictions

Here is my re-post of the gaming predictions that I made for Geekwire.com.

Here are my best attempts at peering into the crystal ball for 2012:

Prediction #1:  Tablets are the new game consoles
Tablets and smartphones are already becoming the mass market console gaming platform of choice.  I personally play more core games on my iPad than I do on my console.  I played a lot of the Batman Arkham City Lockdown game and was blown away at the graphics and fun multi-touch gameplay.  The new generation of kids will largely skip consoles as their go-to video game consumer experience and head right towards Android and iOS devices.  In the traditional gaming space, look for continued declines in the category of revenue and shipments. 

Prediction #2:  Amazon builds The Game Cloud
Amazon’s EC2 and cloud services already power much of the social gaming industry.  Their Kindle Fire is already looking like the #2 player behind Apple in the tablet space.  Along with being the largest e-commerce player in the world, why not connect the dots with a cloud-based gaming service that provides open APIs for game developers to hook into their stack as well as streaming services? You can imagine an expanded notion of what Amazon has done with their Kindle app — making it cross platform and dabbling in HTML 5. Imagine building your game once and hooking into services like distributed entitlements, game state support, etc? For example, if players are on the bus using their Kindle Fire, they can save their gameplay and then pick up where they left off at work via Facebook on their laptop.

Prediction #3:  Casual is back on the social graph
We already saw genre diversification for social games between 2010 and 2011.  Now about half of the social games are casual versus Ville’s.  Look for new types of takes on the traditional game mechanics to explode onto the social gaming scene in 2012.  One can merely point to the Hidden Object Games, Gardens of Time or King.com’s Bubble Witch Saga, as successful recent examples.

Prediction #4:  New entrants in mobile and social
Yes, there is much more competition in mobile and social. But, we have seen examples of relatively new companies rocketing to the top of the most popular application charts.  Recent examples are the meteoric rise of Wooga and the recent success of King.com that have both made the Facebook Top Ten Game List as measured by daily active users.

Prediction #5:  More market consolidation
There will be increasing social and mobile gaming consolidation.  Recent gaming IPOs such as Zynga and Nexon have raised billions of dollars so they’ve got money to spend.  Existing players like Disney and Electronic Arts have already made huge plays as well.  Look for continued acquisitions by both new and established players as they look to expand market share in the white hot social and mobile gaming spaces.  There will be at least two $500M+ acquisitions in 2012.

Here’s to an exciting 2012!  Game on.

Startup Whisperer 2012 Predictions

I just recently posted my 2011 prediction recap and now its time to predict the major technology happenings for 2012.  I'll be posting some games specific predictions on the GameHouse.com corporate blog this week. 

Here we go:

Prediction #1:  Wearable Internet
Internet-based sensors and augmented reality overlays will show up everywhere.  After recently reading about Google's AR glasses, I most certainly will want a pair.  My friend Marc Barros' company, Contour, is absolutely killing it with their wearable HD camera.  They are one of the fastest growing company around doing ten's of millions of dollars in revenue per year. Their products are already integrating GPS data into their video feeds.  Why not Twitter posts or integrated information from a smartphone?  Why not health information like blood pressure, heartrate, etc.  I am already hooked on RunKeeper and the company behind this widely successful iOS application is talking about building a very ambitious 'health graph'.  Look for specialty devices (like Jawbone and Contour) as well as smartphone specific integration integrated sensor data. 

Prediction #2:  Apple Keeps Innovating
Android will continue to eat smartphone market share against the iPhone because of the closed ecosystem strategy of Apple.  But, Apple will continue to keep its relative share on the iPad and will introduce a number of new innovations in 2012.  I was struck by the reference to Apple TV after reading the Steve Jobs biography.  Everyone is expecting it to launch this year.  So, I will pile on with the rest of the pontificators.  Apple will launch a kick ass television set in 2012.  iOS applications integrated with you live and on-demand TV all in one elegant box.  There will most certainly launch the iPhone 5 as well as a new iPad 3. 

Prediction #3:  Microsoft 8 Makes A Market Share Dent Across Multiple Screens
The new Windows 8 is looking incredible.  We've all seen either the YouTube demo's or have been lucky enough to play with it in person.  The vision around integrating a combined tablet and desktop OS unified around their Metro UI is truly awesome.  Enough to make a meaningful share impact against Android?  It might in the enterprise. 

Prediction #4:  Amazon's Kindle Fire Is #2 in Tablets
Android will continue to eat share in the smartphone space but will continue to struggle against Apple's iPad.  Amazon will be the clear #2 player behind Apple and the leader in Android tablet sales.  There has been some criticism of the product but Amazon will continue to keep iterating on it.   With the easy to use interface and exceptionally accessible and cheap content, the Kindle will be the alpha Mom's tablet of choice in 2012.

Prediction #5:  Microsoft Will Buy RIM
RIM has had its own fair share of issues including announcing no new products for the first half of 2012 and market share that is dropping like a rock.  Look for RIM to be acquired.  It would make sense for Microsoft to acquire the customers, patents, and inject their mobile OS strategy into the company.

Prediction #6:  Facebook IPO
Yes, the biggest "no-duh" of the year but Facebook will IPO at $100 billion.  Zuckerberg will be worth around $20 billion and there will be 1000 newly minted millionaires. 

Prediction #7:  Seattle startup acquisition prediction:  Z2Live
I believe that I have only nailed one company prediction in the last four year.  But, considering the risky nature of startups, it ain't that bad.  This year I predict that  Z2Live the mobile game creators of Battle Nations and Trade Nations will be acquired.  Mobile and social gaming are hot and the supply of great studios with market traction are not as plentiful as they used to be because of the tremendous amount of M&A activity from large players like Zynga and EA.

Here is to an exciting 2012!